Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, June 16th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory to recover yesterday afternoon’s weakness. Stocks are extending their Monday rally with the Dow up 57 points and the Nasdaq up 366 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32 (4.45%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to yesterday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday upward revision in pricing Monday, you may see an improvement this morning of about the same size.

6/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.45%

366

Dow

52,037

57

NASDAQ

26,741

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Positive

Housing Starts (New Home Construction)

May's Housing Starts data was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a 15.4% decline in new home groundbreakings. This was a much larger decline than was expected and the fewest number of starts since May of 2020. The large overall drop is being attributed to a significant decline in multi-family groundbreakings, such as apartments and condos. Mortgage rates are more sensitive to data relating to single-family homes than apartments, but as a sign of economic weakness, we can still label the report favorable for rates even though it hasn’t had an obvious impact on this morning’s rates.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

There is also a 20-year Treasury Bond auction taking place today with results expected to be made available at 1:00 PM ET. These types of sales give us an indication of investor demand for long-term securities, which is relevant because mortgage rates are based on long-term debt. If the results show a high level of interest in the securities, we could see afternoon gains in bonds that lead to a slight improvement in mortgage pricing. On the other hand, a weak sale could contribute to an upward revision in rates before the end of the day.

High

Unknown

Retail Sales

Tomorrow has the potential to be a very interesting day for the financial and mortgage markets. It will start with the release of May's Retail Sales report at 8:30 AM ET. This data is considered to be highly important to the financial and mortgage markets because it gives us insight into consumer spending habits and that category makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.5% rise in sales and a 0.6% increase if more costly and volatile auto transactions are excluded. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates would be weaker spending numbers since softer consumer spending restricts economic growth, making bonds more appealing to investors.

High

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

The FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow afternoon. There is a strong consensus that the Fed will leave key short-term interest rates unchanged at this meeting despite much debate about a potential rate increase soon. The post-meeting statement could cause some negative volatility if it appears to confirm that theory, but the recently announced Iran peace deal lowers the likelihood of that happening since an open Strait of Hormuz should ease gas and energy costs. This meeting includes revised economic projections such as overall economic growth (GDP), unemployment and inflation predictions. We will also get their so-called dot-plot that tells us where individual Fed members feel key rates will be in the future. They will be followed by a 2:30 PM ET press conference with the newly appointed Chairman Warsh.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.