Wednesday, August 5th
Wednesday’s bond market has opened down slightly despite favorable economic news. Stocks are rallying again, possibly contributing to this morning’s soft open in bonds. The Dow is up 617 points while the Nasdaq has gained 88 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (4.62%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Tuesday’s early pricing.
2/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.68%
617
Dow
54,703
88
NASDAQ
26,673
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Positive
This morning’s release of July’s ADP Employment report revealed 44,000 new private-sector jobs were added to the economy last month. This was lower than the 75,000 that was expected, giving us an indication that the private employment sector was not as strong as thought. In most cases, any data that shows weaker employment statistics is considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, this report does come close to the importance of Friday’s governmental Employment report that gives us much more insight into the sector. This is why we haven’t seen a positive reaction to the data.
Medium
Neutral
Today’s second report was July’s non-manufacturing index (aka service index) from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) at 10:00 AM ET. They announced a reading of 54.1 that was a bit weaker than the 54.4 that was predicted, but also was a modest increase from June’s 54.0. The minor variance and little change from June hint that the service sector was mostly flat last month, allowing us to label the report neutral for mortgage rates.
Medium
Unknown
We are also looking for a possible market reaction to a speech by Fed Governor Lisa Cook today, albeit it may not be seen until tomorrow morning. She will be speaking in Anchorage, Alaska at 4:05 PM ET with a topic listed as Economic Outlook. While she was not one of the three dissenting votes to keep key short-term rates unchanged at last week’s FOMC meeting, she has previously stated she is willing to vote for a rate hike if inflation doesn’t start retreating towards the Fed’s goal of a 2.0% annual rate. If her comments in the speech lead traders to believe she is close to voting for a Fed rate hike, we could see a negative reaction in the bond and mortgage markets since it would signal that they are worried about inflation. Rising inflation makes bonds less appealing to investors, leading to higher mortgage rates.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow brings us two relatively minor pieces of economic data with the release of last week’s unemployment figures and the 2nd quarter Productivity Index, both at 8:30 AM ET. Rising claims for jobless benefits are a sign of a weakening employment sector. Therefore, an increase from the previous week’s 197,000 initial claims would be considered favorable for mortgage rates. Analysts are predicting a number around 201,000. The higher the number of new claims, the better the news it is for mortgage pricing.
Medium
Unknown
The productivity report is another rare occasion when a large increase is considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Forecasts show a 0.7% increase in worker output. Employee productivity is relevant because a higher level of output per hour is believed to mean that the economy can expand without inflation concerns. This release also includes a reading on labor costs that can be quite influential if it shows a surprise. A larger rise in output and a softer increase in labor costs would be favorable for rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.