Friday, May 15th
Friday’s bond market has opened well in negative territory in reacting to geopolitical news (or lack of). Stocks are also in selling mode, pushing the Dow lower by 450 points and the Nasdaq down 390 points. The bond market is currently down 24/32 (4.58%), which should cause this morning’s mortgage rates to be somewhere between .500 and .750 of a discount point if compared to Thursday’s early pricing.
24/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.58%
450
Dow
49,613
390
NASDAQ
26,244
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Negative
Today’s only relevant economic data revealed output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities was much stronger than expected last month. April’s Industrial Production report was released at 9:15 AM ET, showing a 0.7% jump in output. This was much stronger than the 0.2% that was expected and hints at manufacturing sector growth. Accordingly, as a sign of economic strength, we are labeling the report bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, this data has had little impact on this morning’s trading. Bonds were already posting heavy losses well before the data was released.
High
Negative
This morning’s negative open in bonds is likely a result of a lack of any concrete progress on the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, tariffs and other relevant topics during President Trump’s summit in China that has now ended. The result is higher oil prices and bond yields up. We have to go back almost a full year to see when the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield was last at today’s level. Since mortgage rates tend to track bond yields, this is troublesome for mortgage shoppers.
Medium
Unknown
Next week has very little in terms of scheduled economic reports that may affect mortgage rates. There appears to be only three monthly releases and the first doesn’t come until Thursday morning. In addition to those reports, there also is a 20-year Treasury Bond auction and the release of the minutes from this month’s FOMC meeting set for midweek. Iran news and comments from some of the many Fed speeches happening next week could also contribute to changes in mortgage rates multiple days. Look for details on the scheduled activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.