Tuesday, July 21th
Tuesday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again with little news to derail the recent upward trend in yields. Stocks are likely contributing to this morning’s bond weakness by posting gains of 308 points in the Dow and 207 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently down 9/32 (4.62%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.
9/32
Bonds
30 yr - 4.62%
308
Dow
52,148
207
NASDAQ
25,715
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Negative
There is nothing of importance scheduled for release this morning. This leaves bond traders to be mostly focused on the Middle East where the recent escalation in the Iran war has oil and gas prices up, fueling inflation concerns. President Trump’s announcement yesterday of a 50% tariff on many Canadian goods brought into the U.S. is also fueling inflation fears because Canada is likely to respond with similar action on U.S. goods. That move raises the possibility of a trade war flaring again, leading to higher costs for U.S. consumers. Rising costs (inflation) makes long-term securities, such as mortgage bonds, less appealing to investors and puts upward pressure on rates.
Medium
Unknown
Tomorrow also lacks relevant economic data, but does bring us an afternoon event that could influence rates later in the day. 20-year Treasury Bonds are being auctioned tomorrow with results of the sale being announced at 1:00 PM ET. If they indicate there was a strong demand for the securities, particularly from international investors, we could see the broader bond market improve enough to lower mortgage rates slightly. On the other hand, if investor interest in the sale was weak, we could see bonds weaken and mortgage rates move higher tomorrow afternoon.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.