Sunday, July 5th
This week brings us little that is expected to influence mortgage rates with just two monthly economic reports scheduled for release. The calendar also has a couple of Treasury auctions and the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting scheduled in addition to the weekly unemployment figures Thursday morning. This leaves outside factors such as Fed speeches and geopolitical headlines to drive trading some days.
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Bonds
Market Closed
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Dow
Market Closed
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NASDAQ
Market Closed
Trailing 90 Days - National Average
Medium
Unknown
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will start this week’s activities with the release of their June non-manufacturing index (aka service index) at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This is the sister report of last week's ISM manufacturing index with this version tracking business executive opinions on conditions in the service sector rather than manufacturing. It is expected to show a reading of 54.3, down slightly from May's 54.5. A reading above 50.0 means more surveyed executives felt business improved during the month than those who said it worsened, signaling stronger economic activity. Good news for mortgage rates would be a much weaker than predicted reading.
Medium
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There is no relevant data set for release Tuesday or Wednesday morning. However, there are two afternoon events scheduled for Wednesday that we will be watching. First is the 1:00 PM ET results announcement from the day’s 10-year Treasury Note auction. This sale, along with Thursday’s 30-year Bond auction, will give us an indication of investor interest in long-term securities, which is relevant to mortgage rates because they are based on long-term debt also. Good news for rates will be the results showing a strong demand from investors, particularly international buyers. On the other hand, a lackluster interest in the securities could lead to an upward revision in rates Wednesday afternoon.
Medium
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We will also get the minutes from the June 16-17 FOMC meeting at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday afternoon. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them, but I don't believe they will reveal a significant surprise that we did not get from the post-meeting statement, revised economic projections and press conference last month. Bond traders are looking for feelings about the direction of inflation and individual member thoughts about the Fed's next monetary policy move. There is much debate about whether the Fed will need to raise key short-term interest rates before they lower them again. Any information that helps form a consensus either way will likely draw a reaction in the markets Wednesday afternoon.
Medium
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The National Association of Realtors will post their Existing Home Sales report for June at 10:00 AM ET Thursday. They are expected to say home resales rose a little last month, hinting at modest strength in the housing sector. Housing weakness makes broader economic growth more difficult, meaning good news for rates would be a decline in sales rather than an increase. That said, this report rarely causes a significant move in rates because it doesn’t carry a high level of importance in the markets.
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Overall, we are expecting to see a fairly calm week for rates, at least compared to other recent weeks unless something unexpected happens. Wednesday is likely to be the most active day for rates while Friday stands out as a good candidate for calmest. Even though there is little happening this week, it still would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future, just in case something hits the newswires.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.